← HIDEOUT Regionals 7th March 2026
Water Umbra TristanTier 2
at HIDEOUT Regionals 7th March 2026
decks
1
(0.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
6-2-0
overall winrate
75.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
59.1%
avg ELO +4.4 per match
expected value
51.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1426
· median 1426
· range 1426–1426
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
905
Q1 1187
Q3 1376
1685
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 10.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.8% | -17.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 7.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 6.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.2% | -17.2 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.8 |
| Water Genbu | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.0% | +6.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.7 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.4% | +18.2 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Merlin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Nico | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Umbra Tristan decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
